Futurism of the University Education System: Application of Scenario Writing Approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 PhD Graduate, Department of Educational Sciences, Ma.C., Islamic Azad University, Mashhad, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Department of Educational Studies and Curriculum Planning, Ma.C., Islamic Azad University, Mashhad, Iran.

Abstract

This study aims to identify the key factors influencing the future of Iran’s higher education system and to develop possible future scenarios using a foresight approach. The research is applied in purpose and exploratory in nature and employs structural analysis based on the MICMAC method. Initially, through a comprehensive review of academic literature, policy documents, and related reports, an initial set of variables affecting the higher education system was identified. These variables were then refined and validated through expert consultation in the fields of higher education, science policy, and futures studies. As a result, 27 key variables were selected for analysis. A 27×27 cross impact matrix was constructed to evaluate the direct influence of each variable on the others using a four-point scale. The data were analyzed using MICMAC software to determine the influence–dependence relationships among variables and to classify them into four groups: influential, strategic, dependent, and independent variables. The results show that variables such as government macro policies, public funding allocation, governance structures, and macroeconomic policies act as the main driving forces of the system. In contrast, variables such as educational quality, research productivity, graduate employability, and student satisfaction are highly dependent on these drivers. Based on these findings, four scenarios were developed to describe possible futures for Iran’s higher education system.

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A Review of Theorizing of Behavioral Sciences
Volume 3, Issue 1
January 2026
Pages 75-88

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